Hebert Boxes
Hebert Boxes
This image shows the two Hebert boxes. If Floridians want an indication of a possible hit they need to keep an eye on any hurricane that passes through these boxes.
Credit: Wikipedia
The Hebert Boxes were "discovered" in the late 1970s by the late Paul Hebert (pronounced AY-bear). Mr. Hebert was a former NWS & NHC forecaster and he found that many of the major hurricanes, wind speeds above 110 mph, that hit South Florida since 1900 had to first pass through one of these 2 boxes. Examples include unnamed hurricanes in 1926, 1928, 1933, as well as the major hurricanes Donna, Betsy, Charley, Wilma, Irma, and Ian all of which came through an Hebert Box. Conversely, storms such as the major hurricanes Floyd, Gert in 1999, and Dorian in 2019, which were headed for Florida at one point, missed the Hebert Boxes and turned away from Florida at the last minute. Each box measures approximately 335 miles by 335 miles.The first box is located east of Puerto Rico and the second box is located over the Cayman Islands. Nearly every major hurricane that hit S Florida since 1900 passed through one of these boxes. Hebert says that a hurricane does not have to pass through these boxes to hit, but if they do "you better pay attention". The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane and Hurricane Andrew did not pass through either box, so there are exceptions to the rule. When major hurricanes miss these boxes, they virtually always miss South Florida. The pattern has proven accurate for 9 out of 10 storms that developed & hit Dade, Broward & Palm Beach Counties. These "old school" Hebert boxes are still in use today by Meteorologists and Hurricane forecasters.
Credit: Wikipedia
Hebert Boxes and NC
Can the Hebert box concept be applied to North Carolina? We were curious to see where North Carolina’s land falling hurricanes have historically tracked, so we did our own analysis. First, we found the 45 storms that made direct landfall as hurricanes in North Carolina since records began in 1851. Second, we determined which 5° latitude-by-5° longitude grid boxes these storms passed through three or more days prior to making landfall.
The results show four boxes through which at least 25% of North Carolina’s land falling hurricanes have traveled. Boxes “A” and “B” include the first Hebert box for Florida, indicating that many of NC’s land falling storms begin on a similar trajectory to those striking Florida. North Carolina’s land falling storms then tend to turn northwestward into boxes “C” or “D”, located north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and from the Bahamas east.​
North Carolina’s Storm Tracks​
Altogether, 31% of North Carolina’s land falling hurricanes have passed through boxes “A” or “B”, and 36% have passed through boxes “C” or “D”. That means those two boxes capture a slightly higher percentage of North Carolina’s land falling hurricanes than the two Hebert boxes do for Florida. When all of North Carolina’s land falling storm tracks are overlaid on these boxes, you can see their typical trajectories. Storms passing through or developing in boxes “A” or “B” generally begin as African easterly waves — tropical disturbances that move off the African coast and cross the Atlantic. The position and strength of the large-scale Bermuda high pressure system often dictates the tracks of these storms.
Credit: North Carolina State Climate Office
Credit: North Carolina State Climate Office
This image shows a Northerly/”Box C” Track
Credit: North Carolina State Climate Office
